Yardeni Research analysts see a positive trajectory for the S&P 500 index over the next couple of months despite the historical trend of September being a challenging month for stocks.
The research firm anticipates that the Federal Reserve’s expected monetary easing beginning with a 25 basis points cut in the federal funds rate on September 18 will support the market.
Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to release its Summary of Economic Projections on the same date, which is widely anticipated to signal further rate cuts in the following months.
The S&P 500 has already seen a significant year-to-date increase of 18.4%, which may reflect investor optimism regarding upcoming good news. Yardeni Research also noted that while the market tends to prefer political gridlock, historically, stocks have performed well irrespective of the ruling party.
The upcoming political events on November 5 are too early to impact current market expectations, according to the analysts.
Geopolitical risks remain a concern, especially with the ongoing situation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. However, subdued oil prices and record stock rallies indicate resilience in the face of these risks.
Domestically, the U.S. economy is growing steadily, and inflation is approaching the Fed’s 2% target. Analysts have strong expectations for the S&P 500’s operating earnings per share for the current year and the next two years, with S&P 500 forward earnings reaching an all-time high.
Despite a valuation multiple for the S&P 500 that appears slightly stretched at 21.1, Yardeni Research suggests that better-than-expected economic indicators could lead to fewer rate cuts over the next 12 months, potentially impacting the bond market more than the stock market.
“We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher. We are still expecting a year-end rally to 5800 on the S&P 500, which might already be underway,” the analysts wrote in a research note Monday.
The firm also predicts a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to between 4.00% and 4.25% in the upcoming weeks.
